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What Covid-19 data is Boris Johnson likely to use for his road map?

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will announce his road map for easing lockdown restrictions in England on Monday, February 22.
Boris Johnson
What Covid-19 data is Boris Johnson likely to use for his road map? (photo: PA Images)

His decisions over how and when restrictions may be lifted will be informed by the latest Covid-19 data, which will be closely examined over the weekend.

What data are they likely to read, what does it suggest about how well the lockdown in England is working – and where does Peterborough sit in comparison? 

The key data falls into six categories: the rate of new cases of coronavirus; the number of hospital admissions and patients; the success of the vaccine rollout; the level of deaths; the estimated number of infections within the community population; and the estimated reproduction number (R), or growth, of the virus.

New cases of Covid-19

The impact of the lockdown can be seen most strikingly in the steep decline since Christmas of the number of new cases of Covid-19.

A total of 74,961 new cases were recorded in England in the seven days to February 14 – the equivalent of 133.2 per 100,000 people.

Meanwhile, in Peterborough, 652 new cases were recorded in the seven days to February 10, which was a drop compared to the week before where 788 positive tests were recorded. 

Of the 315 local authority areas in England, only 13 recorded a rise in rates in the seven days to February 14.

Hospital activity

The number of patients in hospital in England with Covid-19 has fallen sharply in recent weeks.

A total of 15,633 patients were in hospital as of 8am on February 18, according to the latest figures from NHS England.

This is down 54% from a record 34,336 patients exactly one month earlier on January 18.

Across North West Anglia NHS Foundation Trust, chief executive Caroline Walker confirmed that as of February 18, the hospitals were currently caring for 149 patients with Covid-19, a steep drop from the month before, with the highest level recorded on January 28, with 308 patients across the hospitals suffering with Covid-19. 

Vaccine rollout

A total of 13,817,914 people in England had received a first dose of Covid-19 vaccine up to February 17, according to NHS England.

This is the equivalent of 24.5% of the total population of England, and 31.2% of people aged 18 and over, based on the latest population estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The latest available breakdown for age groups in England is for doses given up to February 14.

Across Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, 29% of the population has now been given their first dose of the Covid-19 vaccine, with 90% of those aged over 70 receiving the jab. 

Meanwhile, 16% of people aged below 70 across the county have received the first dose of the coronavirus vaccine. 

Deaths

The current wave of coronavirus deaths peaked on January 19.

A total of 1,280 deaths involving Covid-19 occurred in England on this date, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics.

This is the most comprehensive measure of Covid-19 mortality, as it covers all mentions of Covid-19 on death certificates.

Since January 19, the daily death toll for England has been on a slow and broadly downwards curve, dropping back below 1,000 on January 29.

Since the start of the lockdown, North West Anglia NHS Foundation Trust has recorded 645 Covid-19 related deaths, with chief executive Caroline Walker stating on February 18: "I can confirm that sadly, 645 patients being cared for in our Trust have passed away since we began reporting Covid-19-related deaths. There have been 199 at Hinchingbrooke Hospital and 451 at Peterborough City Hospital. All patients were aged 30 to 98 years old and the majority of those had pre-existing health conditions. We are currently caring for 149 patients with Coronavirus in our hospitals. 

"Our thoughts and condolences remain with the patients' families and loved ones at this difficult time."

Infections and reproduction

New figures for infections and reproduction will be published later on Friday.

Data published last week by the ONS showed around one in 80 people in private households in England were estimated to have had Covid-19 between January 31 and February 6, down from around one in 65 people for the period January 24 to 30.

The reproduction number (R) for coronavirus in East of England was estimated on February 12 to be between 0.7 to 0.9, meaning on average every 10 people infected will infect between seven and nine other people.