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What does Peterborough's current coronavirus data show?

The government said when releasing its roadmap to lifting lockdown that decisions about lifting restrictions would be based on four tests.
THS-Peterborough-residents-head-into-Tier-isolate-poster
How does Peterborough fare in the four tests which determine whether lockdown will lift on July 19?

1 The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully

Peterborough is still slightly behind in the vaccine roll-out compared to other parts of the country - around 65% of the 18+ population had been given at least one dose of a vaccine as of June 27. Nationally around 85% of people over 18 have received their first dose.

The most successful local authority in the country as of June 27, was Allerdale in Cumbria with 88.1% of the adult population given at least one dose and 71.7% given both doses.

But some boroughs of London, including Hackney and Westminster, have seen as little as 51% of the population take up the offer of a vaccine appointment so far.

The government has said that by July 19 a second vaccine dose will have been offered to everyone over 40 who received their first dose by mid-May.

July 19 is also the target for every adult to have been offered a first dose.

 

2 Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated

In the week to June 27, the latest hospital data available, there were four Covid-19 admissions at North West Anglia NHS Foundation Trust hospitals.

This is two more admissions than in the week before, when two patients were admitted.

Compared to the week to January 24, the month the pandemic peaked in Peterborough, 202 patients were admitted over the seven days.

The Public Health England coronavirus dashboard shows that zero deaths have been recorded within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test in Peterborough since April 16.

In the last seven days – from June 29 to July 5 – there have been 128 deaths within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test, which is six more than the week prior.

 

3 Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS

The infection rate for Peterborough remains below the national average, although it continues to rise.

Peterborough's current infection rate is 131.5, with 266 new cases in the week to July 1.

The national average for England is currently around 223.2 per 100,000 people, up sharply week-on-week from 129.0.

In the week to June 24, the case rate was 59.3, based on 120 new cases reported.

In the seven days to June 9, the case rate was 21.3 per 100,000 people, with 43 new cases in the city.

 

4 Assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new variants

According to data from the Wellcome Sanger Institute, 97.2% of coronavirus cases found in Peterborough in the two weeks to June 26 were Delta variant cases.
This is up from 33% in the two weeks to June 5.

The Delta variant, which was first identified in India, continues to account for approximately 95% of confirmed cases of coronavirus across the UK.

Dr Jenny Harries, chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency, said: “Cases across the UK continue to rise and it is incredibly important that we do not forget to be careful.

“The best thing we can do to protect ourselves and the people we love is to get the vaccine if eligible, get tested twice a week and practise ‘hands, face, space, fresh air’ at all times.

“Although cases are rising, we are not seeing a proportional rise in the number of people who are being admitted to hospital.

“The data suggest this is testament to the success of the vaccination programme so far and clearly demonstrates the importance of getting both doses of the vaccine.”

 

What has the prime minister said of his plans to fully lift lockdown?

The so-called “freedom day” is expected on July 19, at a time when the prime minister acknowledged there could be 50,000 new cases detected daily.

But Boris Johnson indicated that if restrictions were not lifted this month, taking advantage of a “summer firebreak” offered by improved weather and school holidays, then controls may have to remain in place until next year.

At a Downing Street press conference yesterday Johnson acknowledged the pandemic was “far from over” with cases rising “fairly rapidly”.

“We are seeing rising hospital admissions,” he said. “And we must reconcile ourselves, sadly, to more deaths from Covid.”

It was only the effectiveness of the vaccine rollout that allowed ministers to contemplate Step 4 of the road map “in circumstances where we would normally be locking down further," he said.

A decision will be taken on July 12 on whether to proceed with the lifting of all lockdown restrictions on on July 19.